November 18th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-3 record last night.

We have to own it. We are not quite where we want to be right now. Our systems are spitting out games, but they aren’t coming through. I think this is because the season is still in flux and teams are figuring themselves out on the go. Hell, the league is figuring things out on the go. The sample sizes just aren’t there yet and night to night, you don’t know what are you getting from these teams.

Take last night’s Hornets and Sixers game. Kemba Walker scored 60 points at home. The Sixers were a schedule alert game, which hit 78% of the time last season. While most teams tire out, the Sixers outscored their opponents in the fourth and got a game winning three from Jimmy Butler (the one player who wasn’t apart of the tough schedule) in overtime.

The Celtics at home seemed like another sure fire bet against the struggling Jazz, but instead the Jazz took the lead in the first quarter and never looked back. When teams shoot 5/33 from three in today’s NBA, they have no chance. That’s something that is hard to predict night to night.

Final loss wasn’t that close, but is indicative of what I’m talking about. The Rockets offense has been a disappointment this season, but on this night they scored their season high with 136 points. They looked like the team we thought we were getting this season, not the team that we’ve seen.

So we’re going to take a step back and go with one, maybe two picks per night for the next little bit. Until we start seeing some more stability in these numbers.

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However, before I get into that I wanted to point out one game that interests me that you should know about. We’ll do this from time to time when there is a game that interests us that we can’t quite pull the trigger on.

Tonight’s game is the San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors. For this one, the Warriors are a schedule alert game. They are playing their fifth game in seven days, their third game in four days and the second half of a road back-to-back. Stephen Curry is already out for this team and Draymond Green is also out. This is going to the be the Kevin Durant, Jonas Jerebko, and Shaun Livingston show. Not exactly a super team.

What’s holding me back from taking this? The Spurs. They’ve been one of the most up and down teams in the league and they come in here having lost three straight.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic Betting Tips:

The Magic have been a surprise team in the East thus far this season with an 8-8 record and it’ll be really interesting to see what this team might do with a point guard. This team really interests me as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic have been leading the way, but they are still to get much out of Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons. Once those guys get into form, look out.

Without Kristaps Porzinigs, we always knew this team was headed to the lottery. They are running out a 3/5s rookie lineup as Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and now Alonzo Trier are in the starting five. Great for development, bad for winning.

Bet Magic -4.5 Logo

November 17th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-1 record last night.

It happened again. We had the Kings +7 and the final score was 112-104, an eight point deficit. This one hurt as with two minutes left, the score was 107-104 after a De’Aaron Fox pull-up three. They wouldn’t score the rest of the game and we lost the bet. Tough, but that’s the NBA for you.

We did get the win going with the Philadelphia 76ers who won 113-107 over the Jazz. Jimmy Butler enjoyed his home debut with 28 points, 7 assists, and a salty post-game interview.

We have another full slate today. My system likes Brooklyn +5 at home, but without Caris LeVert I’m not sure how much I trust the numbers there. I’m also staying away from whatever is going on in Golden State. They could bounce back tonight and win by 20 or lose by 20. I have no idea what to make of them. I do have three games that I am liking today though so let’s get right into those.

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Tips:

This is a schedule alert game for the Sixers. While Butler is probably immune from that one, the rest of the team should be tired right now. They played the one game post-trade shorthanded and the stars played heavy minutes and the team is considering sitting Joel Embiid for this one. This is their fifth in eight days, third in four and the second half of a back-to-back.

That said, based on the stats of the season it is looking like the Hornets are the better team right now. They have a +5.2 point differential on the year and have been 4-2 at home this year. Kemba Walker has been bombing this year and I like what I’ve seen from Malik Monk. I think the Hornets win this one.

Bet Hornets -2

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics Betting Tips:

Another team with a tough night of scheduling is the Jazz. This is third third game in four nights, second half of a back-to-back, and the fourth game of a five-game road trip. They’ve lost six of their last nine games and I don’t like what I’ve seen from this team of late. They looked better last night, but Donovan Mitchell‘s 31 points is kind of hollow with zero assists. Rudy Gobert, the king of defense, had a -26 plus/minus last night so there is something wrong here.

Boston’s defense has been the best in the NBA this season and they have been very solid at home this year. They are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in Boston on the season. Kyrie Irving absolutely went off last night and this team is starting to put it together. I like them to hold court at home tonight and grab a win against this struggling Utah squad.

Bet Celtics -4.5

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets Betting Tips:

They fell just a point short of covering the spread yesterday, but I still like what I am seeing from this team. De’Aaron Fox is not afraid of the moment late in the game and this team plays a very good modern style of basketball. They are getting big points here tonight and I’m not quite sure why.

Houston looked great in their last game, but I think that had far more to do with the drama (and lack of Stephen Curry) of the Warriors than their own play. I still don’t feel like this team has enough shooting. James Harden can go off, but I just don’t see this team winning by 12+. Give me the points.

Bet Kings +12.5 Logo

November 16th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-1 record last night and it wasn’t a pretty one.

The Hawks looked like a nice bet with the biggest positive line of the night at +14 against a struggling Denver team. What we got instead was one of the biggest blowouts of the season with the Nuggets winning 138-93. The lesson, to me, is: when you love a team for their home team advantage in elevation, don’t go against them at home.

A big Friday night with a ton of games. I’ll personally be going to the Bucks and Bulls game. Thanks to national television, this one starts at 8:30 local team. Weird, but I can’t wait to see Giannis Antetokounmpo and the gang. They really got screwed in their last loss against the Grizzlies with some inexperienced referees so I am expecting them to come out huge tonight. I kind of like the under here and the Bucks, but I realize I am clouded and won’t be tipping it.

The biggest game of the night is the Celtics at home against the Raptors. Toronto won their match-up earlier this season and has looked like the better team thus far this season. Boston has rotation things to figure out, but you have to think they’ll be up for this game. Should be a good one. I’ll be skipping that one, but I do have two other games that I like tonight. Let’s get into those.

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Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Tips:

Jimmy Butler is making his home debut for the Sixers here. The first game was kind of a mess as both him and Ben Simmons seemed to defer to each other. Joel Embiid continued to dominate, but one of those two needs to figure out who is the “Chris Bosh on Miami” of this team. It will be difficult and there may be some growing pains. That said, I love their lineups now. JJ Reddick and Wilson Chandler in the starting lineup with those two gives them shooting and Markelle Fultz is a much better fit on the bench. The crowd should be hot this one and Philly is 7-0 at home this year.

The Jazz are coming off the most embarrassing loss as they lost by 50 to the Mavericks. This was a team that was expected to be a top-4, top-2 seed in the West and they lost like that to a lottery team. That wasn’t just one game as they have really struggled for the past week plus. I am expecting a bounce back here, but I’m not sure it will be enough. The existence of Rudy Gobert will inspire Embiid in this one and I think we could see Butler going hard at Donovan Mitchell.

Bet 76ers -2.5

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Tips:

It’s time to figure out what the deal is with the Kings. They’ve had a very favorable schedule early which has led to the 8-6 record. They’ve won seven of their past ten with the only losses being to the Lakers, Bucks, and Raptors. Three teams with three of the ten best players in the NBA in LeBron James, Giannis and Kawhi Leonard.

Outside of those, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, and Willie Cauley-Stein have been balling. I really like the way this team plays and I think they give Memphis fits here. Don’t sleep on Nemanja Bjelica who has been huge for this team.

Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are solid and Jaren Jackson looks like a player in this league, but the next group is a lot of question marks. Garrett Temple? MarShon Brooks? Shelvin Mack? It’s hard to tell if this is small sample size or veterans fitting into new roles.

I can see the Grizzlies winning this game, but I don’t think they deserve to be laying this many points. The Kings are far more athletic and while the two stars of Memphis are the better, I like the rest of the group with Sacramento more.

Bet Kings +7 Logo

November 12th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-1 record last night.

The Bucks did the impossible last night as they won in Denver. They had just about the hardest NBA scheduling as you’ll see all season as they were on a back-to-back, playing their third in four days and fifth in eight days, plus doing it at elevation. Brook Lopez hit a career-high eight three-pointers in this one to carry the team to the win and a loss for us.

We did get the win as the Blazers beat the Celtics 100-94. This game wasn’t nearly as close as that though. This game was 54-37 at the half and the Blazers were never not in control here. Damian Lillard had 19 points and 12 assists while Jusuf Nurkic had 18 points and 17 (!) rebounds. The Celtics offense and rotations really need some work right now. Al Horford‘s shooting isn’t helping, but this team should still be better than they are right now.

Two games to watch, but I’ll be skipping today are Philly/Miami and Brooklyn/Minnesota. That Jimmy ButlerDario Saric/Robert Covington trade is unlikely to be completed in time for the game today so those two teams should be short handed for this one. I also like the Bulls/Mavs over if Luka Doncic plays, but that seems unlikely at this point.

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Orlando Magic vs. Washington Wizards Betting Tips:

I was a bit hesitant here as Aaron Gordon is currently listed as questionable, but this is just a situation where the line, the stats, and the results don’t match up. Washington has not been good. There defense has been beyond horrible and the chemistry issues are real. They shouldn’t be giving up this many points to anyone.

The Magic looked great last night without Gordon as they won 115-89 against the Knicks. These teams play similar games as they struggle shooting threes, but the Magic defense has been better this year and I think they can make a games of this.

Bet Magic +7.5

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz Betting Tips:

This one comes down to the defense. The Jazz defense has not been there yet while the Grizzlies very much has. These teams already played once this season and the Grizlies won 110-100 and now they are playing in Memphis with the home team getting points. Okay.

The Grizzlies defense has been very solid this season as they are 6th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. The Offense Rating is 18th, but they are playing at a glacial pace which benefits their game plan. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy and this team is a threat again.

Utah has been much more offense and they’ve had mixed results with that thus far. They are 8th in Offensive Rating, but 19th in Defensive. That’s not their game plan and it’s shown with the 6-6 record. I think this team will figure it out eventually, but this is a good place to go against them. The Grizz shouldn’t be getting points at home when they beat this team already.

Bet Grizzlies +3.5

For this game, I am also really liking the over though. The Jazz will try to force the pace a little bit and both teams getting to 100 isn’t out of the question to me. The total on this right now is 202.5, but I’d go up to 205 max. This is a good spot to take the over.

Bet Grizzlies/Jazz Over 202.5

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Tips:

The Spurs are the Spurs because they win this game. They are 5-2-1 against the spread and 8-0 straight up against the Kings over the past three seasons. The team is getting healthy and they have their Defensive Efficiency sitting at 100 over the past five games which is the best in the league.

I’ve been a big fan of the Kings early this year, but this is not the night that they slay the dragon.

Bet Spurs -3 Logo

November 11th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-2 record last night.

The Spurs got the win over the Rockets last night as they continue to struggle. We had the Spurs getting points and they won outright 96-89. That’s three losses where the Rockets have failed to score 90 points, something that would’ve been unheard of a year age. LaMarcs Aldrige led the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds.

We also had the Heat laying points who dropped the game to the Wizards, 116-110. Miami was looking good here until the Wiz erupted in the fourth 33-25. John Wall finished with 28 points and nine assists.

The less said about the Kings against the Lakers, the better. I’ll just say this: Buddy Hield shot 3-for-17 in this game and the Kings as a whole shot 34.8%. You just aren’t going to win when one of your best players has a shooting night like that.

I hate to be this guy, but I was thinking Grizzlies up until the last minute yesterday. Some line moves the wrong way scared me off of that, but if I’d known the Sixers and Wolves made that Jimmy Butler trade at the time of my writing I would’ve definitely went with it. Oh well. Let’s get to Sunday’s games.

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Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers Betting Tips:

I really do like the Boston Celtics and it kills me to go against them so often. This is one of those times though. They are playing their third road game in four nights and are facing a Blazers team that is clicking on both ends of the court right now. Damian Lillard has somehow managed to go up another level and this team is fourth in Offensive Rating.

This should be a great match-up for them as the Celtics are currently second in Defensive Rating. There was a time in this league when you’d always take the defense over the offense, but it feels as if that time has passed. This is an offensive league now and if Lillard and CJ McCollum play like they have been tonight, I think they grab the home win here. The time of Boston is coming, believe me, but I think we can squeeze out another win going against them here.

Bet Blazers -2

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:

This should be one of the best games of the early season with Nikola Jokic going up against Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the rest is firmly against the Bucks in this one. This is their fifth game in eight days, third game in four days and the second half of a road back-to-back. The worst part? It’s in Denver! The elevation is killer for everyone who is not adjusted to it and that includes seven-foot tall Greek freaks. The Nuggets were off yesterday and this is the final game of a four-game West coast road trip for the Bucks. Damn the scheduling gods.

On paper, this is an incredibly even match-up and I’d love to see how it plays out in a more interesting setting. As is, I am expecting this to be a decent game for three quarters before the Nuggets do their thing in the fourth quarter as the Bucks run out of gas.

Bet Nuggets -3.5 Logo

November 10th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 3-0 record last night!

I love when we take the underdog and they win the game outright. That’s what happened last night with the Kings +3 at home against the Wolves and that very nearly happened when we took Charlotte +5.5 against the 76ers.

The Wolves finally got a great game out of Karl-Anthony Towns with a monster 39 point/19 rebound effort, but it was for naught as the Kings won 121-110. Injuries were an issue for Minnesota as they were shorthanded and all five Sacramento starters scored 14 or more points, led by Willie Cauley-Stein‘s 25.

Charlotte really wanted to win the game last night. Down heading into the fourth quarter, they outscored the Sixers 34-23 in the fourth quarter to force overtime. They very nearly had it as they ended up with a five point lead with under two minutes left, but the Sixers came back to tie. This one wasn’t as exciting as the score would tell you as the teams combined for 81 free throw attempts (!), led by Joel Embiid‘s 22 FTA. Embiid ended with 42 points and 18 rebounds.

We also had the Jazz/Celtics over 208 and this total even blew out my expectations as the Jazz won 123-115. Joe Ingles finally had a great night and he combined with Donovan Mitchell and Jae Crowder to score 68 points.

A great night. Let’s have another one.

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Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat Betting Tips:

The Wizards have been a disaster this season and I’m not sure what it’s going to take to fix it. I do believe they will be fixed at one point, there is just too much talent on this team for them not to, but right now it doesn’t look good. John Wall and Bradley Beal just don’t really fit together and Otto Porter has been a disappointment. The team has been better rebounding since getting Dwight Howard back, but there are still big issues here.

Miami doesn’t have those problems. The good version of Hassan Whiteside appears to be back and this team is always well coached and playing hard. The results haven’t quite been there yet, but the defense is 11th in the NBA right now and they are facing a defense that has been bleeding points on the season. I have to like them at home here.

Bet Heat -2.5

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:

I’ve been steering clear of Rockets games this season because the numbers and the talent level of James Harden and Chris Paul just don’t align. This was the best regular season team a year ago with an exciting offense and this year everything is going wrong. They don’t have enough shooting around their two playmakers and the defense hasn’t been there. Their last two losses saw them fail to score even 90 points and all but one of their losses has come by ten or more. When they lose, they lose big. It might be time to worry.

The Spurs will be without Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay for this one, which hurts, but I still have faith in them here. This team isn’t as reliant on the three ball as the Rockets and LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar Derozan have been a solid teaming. I think the Spurs have no business getting points at home.

Bet Spurs +1.5

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Tips:

This is the same story as last night. The Kings are good now and the sportsbooks need to catch up. They won last night’s game outright and are once again a home underdog to a team that is not elite.

I believe in the Lakers, but this team is 1-6 as a favorite this year and the rotations still need work. There isn’t enough shooting around LeBron James and LeBron himself is not committed on defense whatsoever. The addition of Tyson Chandler helped in last game, but he is in his 18th season and can’t be relied on for heavy minutes. Lonzo Ball is very uneven game to game and I just don’t fully trust them yet.

Ball could learn a few things from De’Aaron Fox. This guy has built himself up and he is ready to play every night. Unlike the Lakers, this team knows exactly who they are. They know their rotations, they know their optimal lineups an they know who is going to take shots late. While they don’t quite have the talent, they are going to keep this one close and I could even see them grabbing a win again today.

Bet Kings +5.5 Logo

November 9th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 0-1 record last night.

What a rip that was. At the end of three quarters, the Suns had an 80-68 lead. A 65 point window to keep the under and midway through the fourth quarter this looked like a lock. Then the Celtics started cutting the lead thanks in big part to Kyrie Irving. The Suns up 100-97 with seconds on the clock, Marcus Morris hits a three and were going to overtime. Boston ran wild in the OT and the over was shot. Hey Phoenix, when you are up three with seconds left: foul!

Friday night brings a full slate of games. There are three games that we’re looking at tonight. Let’s get it started.

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Tips:

In a scheduling quirk, these two teams have already played once this season at Philadelphia. That game was decided by just two points, but the line on this one is much higher and I’m not quite sure why.

Charlotte has been one of the better against the spread teams in the NBA this season with a 7-4 ATS record. They have been killing it on both ends of the floor thus far this season with a +7.5 Net Rating. Kemba Walker is averaging 28.1 points per game and Malik Monk is growing into his role behind him. A big part of this team has been the three point shooting as they have shot to sixth in attempts.

The 76ers are great, but they have been flawed this season. Ben Simmons is having some growing pains, Dario Saric can’t hit a three to save his life and the Markelle Fultz experiment is having trouble early. The Sixers have been tough at home, but I just think this line is slightly too high. The Hornets have been the far better offense on the season and I like them with the points today.

Bet Hornets +5.5

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz Betting Tips:

We saw a glimmer of what the Celtics offense could be in that fourth quarter yesterday and it was terrifying. We forget sometimes just how good Kyrie Irving is and Gordon Hayward is growing back in strength. Hayward will definitely be the story here as he makes his return to Utah for the first time as a player since leaving them. Emotions should be running high and I could see him going off here.

The Jazz defense has not been anyway near what it was last season early, but the offense has been a big surprise. Donovan Mitchell is fantastic and he’ll be healthy for this one. I could see him dueling with Hayward here to show himself as the new king of Utah. These are two of the better defensive teams in this league, but I think the books are overrating them a bit. The offenses can play and I think they go over this total.

Bet Celtics/Jazz Over 208

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Tips:

The Wolves are still winless on the road and they face one of the surprise teams of the NBA this season tonight. The Kings are the third youngest team in the league, but they are getting breakout years from Willie Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield, and especially De’Aaron Fox. They match up well against this Wolves team and really have no business getting points at home where they are 3-1 against the spread.

Minnesota is good and they should be doing better than the are, but the reasons they aren’t are pretty clear. I am not going to trust them until something changes.

Bet Kings +3