October 25th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

A 1-1 night last night with our loss being yet another bet that failed to cover by less than a score. This one was 0.5 points.

So have to take that as a good sign – we had Raptors -7.5 and they won by exactly 7. Frustrating to see but it means we’re not way off in our projections or anything and it’s just variance that will balance out.

We had a similar start to the year last year actually and it balanced out around February/March.

Our win was backing LeBron James & co to beat the Phoenix Suns and cover the 3.5 point spread. This was one where stats and metrics went out the window and it was more “LeBron ain’t going 0-4”. And he did not as the Lakers won with ease and a great performance from Lance Stephenson Jr. who put in an incredible performance which was nice to see.

Onto tonight. Sorry about the delay – me and Vin chatted this morning and then the day completely got away from me. Scary how that happens. I remember sitting down at 1pm to write these up and now it’s 4:37pm as I start this. Yikes.

Nuggets vs Lakers Betting Tips:

We backed LeBron last night but we are backing against him tonight as we are taking Nuggets -2.5.

I was happy seeing the Lakers performance last night and they looked good it has to be said. However they’re coming up against a Nuggets team who are firing on all cylinders.

Every single player on the Denver Nuggets team is performing extremely well and they have the team chemistry going. The Lakers do not. It’s that simple. The thing about the Nuggets? I think they can get even better. Their defense is doing an excellent job and I think there is a lot more to come from their offense. That’s scary and something that will get better as time goes on.

I look forward to tipping the Lakers a lot more on their ability down the road but for now I’ve got to go with Nuggets -2.5.

That’s the only tip of the night. Was very tempted by Blazers -3.5 or the under in that game but couldn’t pull the trigger. Logo

Cavs vs Warriors Game 4 Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

Cavs vs Warriors Game 4 takes place tonight. The Golden State Warriors lead 3-0 in the games and look to sweep.

In a parallel universe JR Smith made that pass and put the Cavs up 1-0 and who knows where things would be.

But we’re sitting here on the verge of a sweep although the sportsbooks have it close with the Cavs at 4.5 points underdogs.

The Warriors lead 3-0 this time last year and the Cavs were able to force a Game 5. Can they do the same again?

Graeme: I’m so disappointed in this series and so disappointed in the Cavs as a whole. Kevin Love has stepped up but he’s really the only one to do so and the rest of the players are just not final quality.

The Cavs had a huge 13 point lead at one point in the last game and for them to blow it was brutal.

Honestly it’d take a super human performance from the Cavs and all of them playing their A game here. In saying that you have to wonder if the Warriors prefer the sweep or the home court. I think they’d want the sweep more.

I believe Lebron has only got swept once which was in the 2007 NBA Finals.

I’m going to go with Cavs to win the first half. I think they at least start strong.

Vin: The last game went pretty close to how I expected it would until the last couple minutes. That’s when Kevin Durant went supernova and the Cavaliers were just outgunned. The Warriors can afford a bad game from Klay Thompson or even Stephen Curry when they have Durant. It’s the ultimate cheat code and why this team is just so darn good.

The NBA Finals are now on the brink of ending and LeBron James‘ career in Cleveland could be coming to an end as well. That said, I don’t think the NBA is going to let that happen. Or at least, they don’t want that to happen. Not for another game at least. A sweep is bad for ratings and their bottom line.

Tonight we’ll see Scott Foster take the court as head referee. We wrote about Scott Foster a bit last round as he had a crazy record against the Rockets. He definitely tends to favor the home team with the whistle and I could see a lot of calls going against the Warriors in this one.

Last Finals that’s exactly what happened as the Cavs grabbed game four for their only win of the series. I could see the Warriors being content with that and taking it back to finish it at home. The league certainly would be happy with it too. I think LeBron leaves it all on the floor tonight in what could be his last game as a Cavalier in front of these fans and Cleveland +4.5 grabs the win.

They should do that by playing into the Cavs gameplan which is not fast. The amount of whistles should also clog up play and not allow the Warriors to play the type of basketball they want to. This could be a slow one and I also like the under 215.5 on this one. Logo

Cavs vs Warriors Game 3 Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

Cavs vs Warriors Game 3 takes place tonight. It’s late let’s get to it.

Graeme: Sorry for the lateness of the tips – totally on me.

Vin sent his bright and early this morning and the day just got away from me.

Anyway we saw the Celtics up 2-0 and what the Cavs did there and I’m good with backing that. This is the most important game for the Cavs and they can’t lose this. I also think a Gentlemans sweep comes into play at worst.

So Cavs Money Line for +145.

Vin: Well, the ghosts of game one really seemed to haunt the Cavaliers in game two and I regret not seeing that. Once the cruel, but totally deserved “M-V-P!” chants started for JR Smith, you knew he was done for the day. LeBron James played great, of course, but he was getting unlucky on a few lay-up bounces and that’s the difference between a win and a loss for them. LeBron needs to be perfect, shoot 80%, score 40+, have 10+ assists and play great defense, then maybe (maybe) they have a chance.

I’m not sure it would’ve mattered if he did that, really. Not when Stephen Curry is making every shot he takes. The Warriors are just awesome and the only thing I am kicking myself about is not betting Steph Curry to win MVP.

This series isn’t over yet though. Things shift to Cleveland where the Cavs role players have played much better in these playoffs. They haven’t lost in Cleveland since round one and have just been a different team there. If they are going to win a game in this series, it’s this one. They should get all the calls that didn’t go their way in game one to go their way here and the crowd should be electric. I have to take the Cavs +4.5 here as this is the game I saw them winning from the beginning.

I’ll also be placing a small bet on LeBron James to have a triple-double +175 as well. You know he wants this game and with his teammates (hopefully) playing better at home, this becomes a better play than the points over 37.5. He doesn’t need to do it all himself if his teammates are making shots which can allow him to rack up assists and hit the boards. Just a small bet, but one I see good value on. Logo

Cavs vs Warriors Game 2 Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

Game 2 of the Cavs vs Warriors series takes place tonight.

I’m sure you all know what happened in Game 1. The Cavs had an epic chance to take the lead in the series 1-0 and they would have as well….except uh JR Smith did his thing.

It happens and it sucks for him for sure – so many amazing memes out there though.

Hopefully he redeems himself tonight. I mean you know that’s just going to eat away at him and it will be brutal if that loss ends up costing them the finals.

What a game it was though. LeBron put up 51 freaking points and was just unreal. Kevin Love helped out too with 13 rebounds and 21 points which was nice to see. Also impressed with Larry Nance Jr. Hopefully the other guys step up.

And hopefully we’ll get another moment like this:

Although to someone other than JR.

Here’s our thoughts for Game 2:

Cavs vs Warriors Game 2 Betting Tips:

Vin: Game one of this NBA Finals should’ve went down in the books as one of the great all-time NBA Playoff games. Maybe it still will, but just enough crazy stuff happened at the end of the game that took away from the play that I’m not sure it will. The ref show in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter where every single thing they did went against the Cavaliers was not only disappointing, but odd. If you are reviewing whether someone’s foot was in the restricted area, why would you do a completely different call? Why didn’t JR Smith know the score? Why didn’t they call a timeout!?

The good news is that one of my bets for the series “One Player Going Over 42.5 Points” already cashed. The good news is that we have at least three more of these things and hopefully a lot more. The bad news is that there is a lot of room for improvement for the Warriors and not a lot for the Cavaliers.

That said, I can envision a scenario where the Warriors come out doing the things that they’ve done all year. Not playing hard in the first half and waiting for a switch to be flipped in the second. There is a question of whether Klay Thompson plays here and Cleveland definitely has something to rally around after the last game.

I’m taking the Cavs +6 first half in this one. I think they come out strong and motivated and I just don’t trust the Warriors in first halves. If Klay doesn’t play, I could see a strong argument for the Cavs moneyline at +390. That injury would make these teams almost even and you don’t even have to question who wants it more.

Graeme: I mean JR Smith stuff aside, the Cavs really hung their own against the Warriors in Game 1. Of course it required a freaking superman like performance by LeBron James.

With the Klay situation and JR Smith looking to prove himself surely, I think the Cavs make this a game of it. Warriors don’t have any primary defender or LeBron so he can perform much like he did in Game 1. James looked ready to go after the game he didn’t look fatigued.

I’m going with Cavs +11.5. Logo

Cavs vs Warriors 2018 Final Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

And then there were two.

Before the season began, everyone said the 2017/2018 NBA Season was going to be predictable. It was going to end up in Cavs vs Warriors.

And sure it did – but it wasn’t the most predictable thing in the world that’s for damn sure.

The Cavs had to rely on a big LeBron performance as they took down the Celtics at home in Game 7, and whether or not they had to “rely” on it – the Warriors cause was definitely helped by the Chris Paul injury.

So now it comes down to the most “obvious” final and the odds are something – Warriors are about -1100 as of right now. When they opened it was closer to -900.

So can LeBron pull off a miracle? Here’s our thoughts:

Vin: Here we go again, the Warriors and Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. There were some real bumps in the road this season and there were certainly times when it looked like we might not get here. I personally had a Raptors/Rockets Finals match-up ticket that now looks stupid and oh so close at the same time. The loss of Chris Paul really killed the Rockets and I will always wonder what happens if he doesn’t get injured. He did though and the Warriors are back, despite only playing a handful of really locked in games this entire playoffs.

Will they bring that for the Finals? You have to assume yes, but even in game seven of the Western Conference Finals, they took most of the first half off. The Rockets definitely had the right game plan and personnel to beat this team, they just got really unlucky from three/tired and lost Chris Paul.

We know that the Cavs don’t have the personnel to beat this team and their defense is not the kind of D that can shut down anyone. They have LeBron James and that’s about it. For the Cavs to succeed here they’ll need to go back to the first time they played these games when everyone was hurt and get back to the caveman, bully bull they played. That’s their only real chance. Abuse the Warriors and foul on every play of the game. There is a reason the Warriors are a -900 favorite here.

It’s hard to envision the Cavs winning though and the best bet for the series from a value standpoint is probably number of games played in series: 5 (+160). I like the value of six games at +375, but this should probably be a sweep and five games seems right to me.

This is a lopsided series though and let’s make what we can out of it. My favorite play is definitely Highest One Game Point Total by 1 Player in the 2016 NBA Championship
Over 42.5 -140
. LeBron is probably doing that, Kevin Durant could easily do that and one of the Splash Brothers could do that too. A lot of options here and you have to think that at least one of these games is going to see an amazing individual performance.

I am also going to make a small bet on something that I believe should’ve happened in the 2015 NBA Finals. A 1/4 unit on LeBron James to win MVP at +600. If these playoffs haven’t shown that LeBron is the best player in the world, then this should prove it. If the Cavs manage to win more than one game, against this team, he deserves it. Happy Finals, everyone.

Graeme: From the Cavs perspective it’s been so hard to judge them. The rest of the team just isn’t stepping up and it’s been all LeBron. I mean to a ridiculous degree.

It’s been so disappointing watching the Cavs really and I’m a bit surprised they have even made it this far. I used to be someone that said “Jordan is better” but honestly I’m fine with saying LeBron is better. This guy is just unreal and he’s proving himself in most of these games.

When you look at the numbers they just reflect so poorly on the Cavs. Worst regular season point differential for a team to reach the finals since 80/81. Net rating of 1.2 points per 100 possessions in the post season. Honestly they are just an absolutely terrible team.

I can’t see anything past a gentlemans sweep. I’m taking Warriors 4-1 for the series at +160. Logo

Warriors vs Rockets Game 7 Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

It was a very tight and low scoring game last night, as the Cleveland Cavaliers came away winners of the Eastern Conference, with an 87-79 victory over the Cavs.

If anyone could beat the Celtics at home then it’d be LeBron and while it took 4 games to do it he was able to do that and steer the Cavs to the finals where they take on the Warriors.

LeBron James makes it an 8th time in a row in the finals. What an impressive performance.

We turn our attention to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals now. For the Warriors to make it to the final everyone expected before the season began, they have to travel to Houston and take out the Rockets.

Our thoughts:

Warriors vs Rockets Game 7 Betting Tips:

Last night’s game seven lived up to the hype and I am expecting this one to as well. The questions around Chris Paul’s injuries are really messing with expectations here and he’s likely to be a game time decision, but I think we’ll see him at some point in this game. This game is the biggest game of his career and I think he’ll do anything he can to play. Even if it’s just in a Willis Reed, inspire his teammates kind of way.

One very interesting subplot of this game is that Scott Foster is head referee for this game. He doesn’t have the best reputation and is somewhat infamous in these playoffs for giving home teams wins. Consider this tweet from earlier in the playoffs:

That said, home teams are 361-425 ATS (45.9%, -81.94 units) in games he referees. So, while conspiracy theorists would say he “gave” games to underdogs in those games, he wouldn’t be doing that here as the road Warriors are big favorites. There is a bit of history with Chris Paul and Scott Foster that could play out in this as well.

The odds are definitely against the home team Rockets in this one and the officiating situation doesn’t seem to favor them either. When the Warriors have won in this series, it’s been by large margins and the Rockets have snuck by in two of their three wins. A Warriors cover is not out of the question so if you are thinking them, you should lay the points. If you are thinking Rockets, take the moneyline of +230.

While this is a match-up of two of the very best offenses and three point shooting teams in the game, I think this game will be all about defense. We saw that in games four and five, and I think this plays out similarly to that. The Under 208 looks like a strong play as slowing it down to those awful James Harden 20 second long isolation plays seems to be the best possible option for the Rockets to compete here.

I think the Warriors probably win this game, but the Rockets +1.5 first quarter seems like a great play to me. They did well in the first quarter last game before everything fell apart and if they want to have a chance in this one, they need to do the same while their home crowd is still rocking. Whatever happens, this should be a heck of a game and I’m excited to see what happens.

Graeme: It’s a hell of a big point spread for this one with the Warriors -6.5. Chris Paul is unlikely for it but is a game time decision.

I’ll be honest I’ve went through everything for this game and I’m not really feeling it. End of the day whether Paul is playing or not I like the Warriors to put up big enough numbers.

Warriors -6.5. No strong reasoning for that I just think they win by double digits. Logo

Celtics vs Cavaliers Game 7 Betting Tips

Graeme & VinWritten by Graeme & Vin

It was an easy winning night for our unanimous pick of Warriors -12. The Rockets actually got off to a surprisingly amazing start, going up 39-22 in the first quarter.

The Warriors bounced back after that though and what an end to the game as the Warriors ran riot 31-9 to finish up winning 115-86.

The Warriors seemed a tad angry after that opening.

CP3 not being there was obvious. Not having him in there to control the ball and the tempo relly hurt the Rockets and there were so many silly turnovers too.

In an interesting stat this is the first time the NBA has seen both conference finals go to Game 7 since 1979.

It’s great to see especially because so many people prior to the season began talked about how predictable it was. It’s nice to see it really tight going down here.

Speaking of we have Game 7 today as the Celtics take on the Cavs.

Celtics vs Cavs Game 7 Betting Tips:

Vin: This is going to be a good one. Game 7 in Boston with an upstart Celtics team against a short handed Cavaliers team with the best player in the world. Kevin Love has already been ruled out in this one so the Cavs will be without their second best player. While Boston is yet to lose at home in the playoffs. This is it. This is why we watch.

This is definitely a leave it all on the court game and everyone is expecting big things from LeBron James in this one and you know what? They should. He’s the best player in the world and he’s absolutely carried his team this far. The over/under on his points in this game is a big one, but I am taking it: LeBron James Over 37.5 points. LeBron has shown up time and time again in Game 7 and has ripped the hearts out of Boston fans chests time and time again. What’s one more time?

Boston has had one hell of a playoff run, but the pressure will never be higher than it is right now and I don’t know if the young guys on that team are really ready for a game seven of this magnitude. Al Horford really struggled in the last game and while they have done some great things, I just can’t bring myself to bet against LeBron in this game seven.

The Cavs +2.5 is a nice line too as I think the best case scenario is a game that comes down to the wire that is decided on a final shot. I can picture that in my head and I hope I see it on my screen tonight.

Graeme: Oh god I don’t know what to think.

On one hand the Celtics are unbeaten at home in the playoffs so far. That’s incredible. Not only are they unbeaten at home but they seem to play an entirely different and more controlling game at home. They always look so up for it.

But on the other side it’s Game 7 and it’s LeBron freaking James. We saw it in the Pacers/Cavs series. LeBron stepped up in Game 7 and put up 45 points as the Cavs won 105-101.

I made the mistake in Game 5 of getting sweeped up in the LeBron narrative. But now it’s quite easy to do so.

However when I make up a pros/cons list it just leans towards the Celtics. LeBron is gassed man – he only had like a 2 minute break in Game 6. This is the worst post season team he’s been part of.

I’ll probably wake up tomorrow and think about what an idiot I am for fading LeBron in a Game 7, but so be it. Celtics -2.5 for me. If the Cavs manage to do it it might be LeBrons biggest accomplishment yet.

Hell even typing that makes me want to bet on the Cavs. Ha. Off to place my bet quick before I change my mind.