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December 17th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-1 record last night.

We had one of those games for the Lakers last night. LeBron James had his worst game ever against the Wizards, a team he has always owned. The back-to-back didn’t seem like much to worry about considering the level of competition, but it definitely changed the Lakers as they were never really in this one.

Denver at home remains a monster and gave us our win of the night. They played a shorthanded Raptors team and held them to just 86 points. Nikola Jokic had 26 points and nine rebounds, as the Nuggets finished the fourth quarter 27-14.

There are eight games on the NBA schedule tonight. Let’s take a look at what the league has to offer.

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Phoenix Suns vs. New York Knicks: My system loves the Knicks here, but I have a hard time betting on two teams with no motivation to win. The best player in this game isn’t even on the Knicks, maybe even the second best as well. No thanks.

Chicago Bulls vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: I’m shook from the Bulls beating the Spurs and playing some good defense in that game. The Thunder are at home and one of the best defenses in the league, this should be an easy win. -13 is a lot though and that Bulls performance on Saturday gives me just enough worry.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. San Antonio Spurs: The system likes the Spurs here, but after Saturday’s loss to the Bulls I am scared to back them at home. This feels like a deal where they lost to a horrible team and now play great against a good one.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips:

I cannot wrap my mind around this line. The Wolves have been very good at home this year, but I don’t quite see how they are -8 favorites here. Minnesota just got swept on a four-game road trip and are limping home. The team has been much better since the Jimmy Butler trade, but they still haven’t been elite.

The Kings are one of the upstart teams of this league. The backcourt of Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox has really blossomed and this team has a bright future. They play hard and I think they’ll give the Wolves problems here. Every metric I track shows this line should be much lower and the Kings with the points are a nice bet here.

Bet Kings +8

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Tips:

The sportsbooks seem to think that the Grizzlies are going to force the Warriors to play their games. The total for this one is one of the lowest on the board which is weird because this is the Warriors. They can score on anyone including this Grizzlies team. Recent history suggests that the Warriors can get this game over and force the Grizzlies into their game and that’s exactly what I think will happen here.

Memphis is having a nice season, but they are just 7-7 on the road and 1-3 against the spread at Golden State over the past three seasons. I like the Warriors to win here, but this line is a bit high for me. Instead, I’m taking the over.

Bet Grizzlies/Warriors Over 211

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December 16th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-2 record last night.

I hate the Spurs. This game made me more angry than any game we’ve tipped this season. The score at the half was 62-43, Spurs. A 19-point lead at the half and it seemed like this was any easy win. Then, I don’t know what happened. The Bulls made a mini-run in the second half and the Spurs started playing the worst kind of basketball imaginable. DeMar DeRozan started playing that iso-ball that gets them nowhere and all of the guards were terrible. They scored 62 points in one half, but only managed half of that in the second half. Against the Bulls! At home! This is the most ridiculous loss of the year and I am done with the freakin’ Spurs.

We also took the Celtics over the Pistons. This game was even in every quarter except for a huge third quarter by Detroit. Boston has been playing well, but the Pistons are probably too good to go on that big of a losing streak and not hunker down. Their second half defense really showed up.

Only six games on the slate today. Let’s see what we’re working with.

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets: The Nets have won four straight and are a pretty tough team to play. The Hawks are not a great team. My system likes this game as Nets -8 and the line is… Nets -8. Not sure what to do with that info, it’s still a lot of points to lay with a 12-18 team.

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers: My boys in Indiana have now won six straight and get the lowly Knicks at home. I love them to push it to seven here, but I don’t love the -12. If it was -10 I’d be all over it, but I get nervous around a dozen.

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks: One loss separates these two teams in record, but Sacramento has the much better Net Rating on the year. At the same time, Dallas is 13-2 at home. -5.5 for Dallas seems high, but that home record is scaring me off.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Washington Wizards Betting Tips:

Not sure I understand the trade of Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers for Trevor Ariza. There is a chance that Ariza was just sort of dogging it in Phoenix and will be rejuvenated by the trade, but that’s a big if. Throw in the trade of Jason Smith that is said to have wreaked havoc on the chemistry and I just don’t trust this team at all right now. They weakened their bench and still have no front court.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are figuring things out. LeBron James and Lonzo Ball both had triple-doubles in their last game out and this team is 7-3 over their past ten, climbing the West standings. I think they roll here.

Bet Lakers -2.5

Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:

If you’ve read this site before, you know how I feel about the Nuggets home court advantage. They play at elevation which is always tough for the road team and it shows in their 11-3 home record. This team is really playing well right now with an 8-2 record over their last ten and Nikola Jokic is really cooking.

They play the Raptors tonight in a match-up of #1 seeds. Toronto should be without Kyle Lowry here as well as Pascal Siakam and Jonas Valanciunas.

Of course, the Nuggets have their injuries as well. No Paul Milsap, Gary Harris, Will Barton, or Isaiah Thomas. This isn’t as marquee as the match-up might imply.

I have to go with the Nuggets home court advantage here though. That is always a killer and I think they have a real chance to dominate the front court match-up as well. Nikola Jokic should be able to easily handle Serge Ibaka and Greg Monroe and lead his team to victory. I can’t believe they are getting points at home here.

Bet Nuggets +3

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December 15th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-0 record last night.

I was really worried about the Pacers when they were down ten at the end of the first half on the road. Joel Embiid was absolutely dominating, finishing with 40 points and 21 rebounds, and I thought this thing was over. Instead, the Pacers stormed back to take the lead heading into the fourth. They played it close before finishing strong and easily covering. This was a classic Pacers game as they got something from everyone with seven players with 8 or more points. Thaddeus Young led the way with 26 points.

This was a rare night in which I wrote up three other games, but wasn’t able to pull the trigger for one reason or another. Well, all three of those came in as well. We are starting to get hot around here.

There are a seven games on the schedule tonight so let’s take a look at what we’ve got to work with.

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Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic: This is one of two “good West team on the road against okay East team” that I am staying away from. My system shows these teams are a bit more evenly matched and the home team probably shouldn’t be getting this many points. The Magic have played really poorly of late though and the Jazz are hot.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Hornets: This is the other one and it’s the same story. Hornets are a slight underdog when the system thinks they should be a favorite. These teams have similar stats across the board and it feels like an even match-up to me. Then again, it’s LeBron James playing in front of Michael Jordan and the Lakers tend to win the games like this. Next.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Tips:

I stayed away from the Celtics last night and that turned out to be a mistake. Well, not tonight! This team is on fire, having won eight straight. Crazier than that, over the past five games they have a +25 efficiency differential. This team has really figured things out.

The Pistons are the Pistons. They’ve now lost six straight and their problems are coming to the surface. Not enough shooting in an NBA that is all about it, this team ranks dead last in Effective Field Goal percentage. Not a good place to be against a team like Boston.

Bet Celtics -2.5

Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:

My favorite team to bet against has to be the team with no playoff hopes and tons of internal drama. The Bulls check all those boxes here. They have Zach LaVine listed as doubtful, Jabari Parker is out of the rotation, and the team is open for business as far as trades go. This isn’t a team I want to back in any shape or form.

The Spurs defense has been a mess all year, but during the month of December they are 16th in Defensive Rating and 2nd in Offensive Rating. They’ve figured something out and they will look very good against the Bulls tonight.

Bet Spurs -11

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December 14th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-1 record last night.

We were all about the Lakers last night and it looked pretty good heading into the fourth quarter. It was 90-88 with the Rockets in control, but getting the points we had to feel pretty good about this one. Then the fourth quarter happened. James Harden asked for a bit of rest and got it, coming in with just five minutes left in the game. The Rockets had a three point lead, but then Harden went off. He scored 11 points in the last five minutes en route to a triple double, and the Rockets ran away with it.

I’ve been monitoring the Rockets rebounding numbers over the past couple of games and they’ve really improved their statistics. They won the battle here and if they can get back to that side, especially on the offensive rebounding, they should be just fine. It’s only two games, but they have done it in each of the last two wins.

A nine game slate on the board tonight, let’s take a look at what the NBA has for us.

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics: This is the largest line of the night and I’m tempted to take it. The Celtics have figured things out with their rotations and are starting to play like the team that we thought they were in the preseason. It was always going to take a bit for this team to mesh. They are definitely winning this one, but -13 is a lot. Especially on the road, even if it is Atlanta. Too much for me, even in Boston.

Washington Wizards vs. Brooklyn Nets: The Wizards are my kryptonite so not messing with them here, but I really like the Nets at -1.5. My system thinks that line should be much higher and the Wizards are just riddled with injuries. No frontcourt and no John Wall. Still, it’s the Wizards so whenever you think they are out, they do well. Skipping this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets: This is one of the best games of the night. I am always a big fan of taking the Nuggets at home as I truly believe in their home court. That said, the Thunder have been the better team of late and the defense is really clicking. Better to watch this one than bet it.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Tips:

Look out, here come the Pacers. They are 7-3 over the past ten and have won five straight games. They just got Victor Oladipo back in the lineup and I feel comfortable taking them. Their defense against the Bucks earlier this week was really impressive and they shut down that team like nobody else did. They really stopped Giannis Antetokounmpo from dominating and held the team under 100.

They play Philadelphia tonight and this team is going through some growing pains with Jimmy Butler. It’s not quite showing up in the record, but there are issues with his health plus issues with Joel Embiid not liking his role in the offense. It’d be a weird move, but I almost wonder if this team is in need of a coaching change.

The Sixers have a great home record, but I really like the way the Pacers are going right now and I love them getting these points.

Bet Pacers +4

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December 10th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-1 record last night.

I had my games flip flopped yesterday. The Bucks were the best play as they went into Toronto and beat the Raptors. I truly thought they were getting too many points in this one and they ended up winning the game by five.

The game I went with, I still don’t understand. The Jazz were favored on the road against the Spurs and while the Spurs are always a tough team to beat, I don’t think anyone could’ve expected this. 54-36 Spurs at the half. The Jazz had a tough shooting night, but the Spurs continued to go against everything that is going on in the NBA as they only made four threes as a team. I just don’t get this Jazz team right now.

New week, new games. There is a ton of games on the slate today. Eleven games in total with some nice match-ups out there. Anthony Davis and the Pelicans against the Celtics, the Jazz and Thunder, Wolves and Golden State, as well as LeBron James and the Lakers hosting the Heat. Should be a good night of NBA basketball, let’s see what we’ve got.

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Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers: Graeme’s system loves the Pacers here and mine is right with it, but even with their success I don’t quite trust this team without Victor Oladipo. When he comes back, I’ll get back to betting them. Plus, the Wizards have been my kryptonite all season long.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks last two games have been against the Warriors and the Raptors. Those are huge, potential Finals and Eastern Conference Finals match-ups. Excuse me if I am worried about them getting up for the Cavs.

Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers: I really want to take the Sixers here, but with Joel Embiid listed as questionable and a line of -8.5, I just can’t do it. No Embiid could mean a big day for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, rebounding still matters in this league.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Sacramento Kings vs. Chicago Bulls Betting Tips:

The Bulls are pretty bad and the return of Lauri Markkanen hasn’t changed that. They are getting a lot of credit form the linesmakers here that I don’t think they deserve. My system sees them as five to twelve point underdogs here. The actual line? -2.5. Oh, heck yeah.

The Kings swept Chicago last season and this team’s far superior. I like them better at all the key positions too. De’Aaron Fox over Kris Dunn, Willie Cauley-Stein over Wendell Carter Jr. (for now), and Buddy Hield over Zach LaVine (turns out defense matters). The Kings have been getting it done this year and I expect them to continue that here.

Bet Kings -2.5

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:

Teams playing at Denver is my favorite home court advantage in the NBA. The thinner air at elevation makes a big difference and the Nuggets have a 9-3 record at home this year. I think that improves here in this match-up against the Grizzlies.

The thing with this game is that I love the Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol match-up. While Mike Conley is nursing an injury here, I think he’ll play. This is a real oil and water situation. Both of these teams play relatively slow paces, but the Nuggets are far more efficient on offense. They are scoring 115.7 points per 100 possessions on the year at home and I don’t think the Grizz will be able to keep up with that in the high air of Denver.

Bet Nuggets -2.5

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December 9th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

A 1-1 record last night.

I am really kicking myself about taking the Wizards over the Cavs last night. I was sitting in my living room with my family, watching Home Alone 2, when it struck me: Tristan Thompson is a beast on the boards and the Wizards have no front court without Dwight Howard. It was too late though, the game had started and the bet was in. Thompson finished with 19 boards as the Cavs blew out Washington.

The Mavericks were great last night though as Luka Doncic went on a 11-0 run by himself to win the game for his team. That kid is truly something special as I think he could get this team in the playoffs. He is a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year and has a good chance of being an All-Star. Atlanta may have made an analytically smart move trading him, but right now they are looking like the biggest fools in the league for doing so.

Only four games on the schedule today. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors: The Bucks lost big to the Warriors on Friday night, but that shouldn’t be held against them. They get another tough match-up tonight against the Raptors. This is a really tough one to pick. On the one hand, the Raptors have been the best of the East and are playing at home where they have been fantastic.

The line on this one is big though. The Bucks have had the much tougher schedule this year and by a lot of stats look like the true best of the East. They have the best Net Rating in the league and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time Player of the Month this season. The stats all say this is a -1 or -2 game, but they Bucks are getting +5.5. I think this is one best enjoyed watching than betting on.

Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks: This is the kind of game you look at and think “yep, Hornets win no problem”, but then you see they are -6 and they have a 3-8 road record. It just doesn’t feel great. Not as great as this next one at least.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:

The Jazz are starting to figure things out. They’ve won four of their past five (with the only loss being to the Miami nightlife) by a minimum of eight points. They come in to tonight’s game well-rested as they haven’t played since Thursday and facing a Spurs team that is not in a good place right now. These two teams played last week and the Jazz won huge, 139-104.

San Antonio has split with nearly every team they’ve played twice this year (except a 3-1 record against the Lakers, weirdly), but I think that ends tonight. Over the last eight games the Spurs are dead last in Defensive Rating while the Jazz are third in the same time frame. When Utah is going on defense, they are one of the best teams in the league and the Spurs do not have the firepower or the defense to keep up.

Bet Jazz -3.5

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December 8th, 2018 NBA Betting Tips

VinWritten by Vin

An 0-1 record last night.

The Thunder took the L to the Chicago Bulls last night and boy, was this one frustrating. As I said in my preview, the Thunder were the #1 Defense in the NBA and the Bulls were the #30 Offense in the NBA. The score at the half? 70-62, Bulls. Naturally. The Thunder seemingly followed the same script from their Nets game as they came back strong in the second half, leading by ten late, but I guess they ran out of the steam and lost the game.

The other games of the night showed that sometimes logic still rules in the NBA. It’s really hard to beat a team on back to back nights so the Spurs beat the Lakers and it’s really hard to beat a great team twice, as the Warriors beat the Bucks.

Another big slate of games tonight, let’s see what we’ve got.

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Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks: I’d normally be all over this one, but I want to see how the Nuggets adjust after losing Paul Millsap to a broken toe. They have been great on defense this year, but he’s a big part of that. They should still win this one, I just want to see how it plays out.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Portland Trail Blazers: The recent trends of both of these teams show that this one should be all Wolves, but the Blazers are just so darn good at home. Staying away.

Americans: Where To Bet the NBA Playoffs

Sportsbook: Reason:
Bovada 50% to $250 Welcome Bonus
5Dimes Best odds, reduced juice.

Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Tips:

The Cavaliers got absolutely pounded last night by the Kings, 129-110, and I’m expecting similar action here today. They are the worst defensive team in the league and bottom five in offense. For all of Washington’s flaws, they’ve now won three straight and are just three games under .500.

Washington might be without John Wall in this one and if anything, I find that a bonus in a game like this. The one alpha scorer can really go nuts against a team like the Cavs and that’s fully what I expect them to do here. They played well in stretches without Wall last year as it was the Bradley Beal show with Tomas Satoransky distributing. That could definitely work here as well. And if he plays? They’ll still do fine. The Cavs stink.

Bet Wizards -5.5

Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets

:

All of my stats say that this line is flip-flopped and it should be the Mavericks favored by three points. They are a very good home team and have a much better bench unit than the Rockets.

Of course, a lot of what is going on in Houston doesn’t really show up in stats. You go for them and they score 90, you go against and they win by 25.

I just have to stick with the eye test on this one though. The Rockets are not a very deep team while the Mavericks are. They are killing it on their bench units, Luka Doncic can match James Harden, and they are a good home team. Don’t overthink it, take the points.

Bet Mavericks +3